Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The new items published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
US Recession with Inflation or Deflation? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2009
By: Bruce_Allen
"One foot on the brake and one on the gas, hey! " --Sammy Hagar, "I Can't Drive 55" It's the summer of 2008 in the U.S. . Recession is imminent, if not already here, and debate rages as to whether it will be accompanied by inflation, giving us that 70's show--stagflation. Most respected economists insist the inflation risk is small; a number of others think it's high. We examine the arguments, dividing them into Things We Know and Things We Suspect.
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Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Stagflation a Weapon of Mass Wealth Destruction / Economics / Stagflation
By: Richard_C_Cook
U.S. wholesale prices in July 2008 grew at the fastest rate since 1981. The cost of materials has risen 9.8 percent in the last twelve months, according to government data. While gasoline prices fell the week of August 18 to $3.74 a gallon, they remain far higher than the $2.40 a gallon of mid-2005. Meanwhile, the price of food at the grocery store continues to climb, while consumer purchasing power remains stagnant.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
US M3 Money Supply Contraction Points to Deflation / Economics / Money Supply
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Telegraph is reporting Sharp US money supply contraction points to Wall Street crunch ahead . The US money supply has experienced the sharpest contraction in modern history, heightening the risk of a Wall Street crunch and a severe economic slowdown in coming months.
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Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Global Economic Slow Down / Economics / Global Economy
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Amid signs of economic slowing, the oil decline continues to garner the headlines. Not only is the US economy in a funk, but also Europe is beginning to show signs of slowing, as is Hong Kong – all the more reason to sell energy, as less will be needed in a global economy producing less.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 18, 2008
The US Economy: All the little things that go to make a Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2009
By: Gerard_Jackson
Since 9/11 the US money supply has rocketed by about 70 per cent*. (The Clinton presidency was just as bad). The problem is one of bad economics, not bad investment decisions, wild speculation, the housing boom, the falling dollar, the current account deficit, the domestic deficit, etc. The vast majority of economic pundits have only a dim understanding of the link between the money supply and America's current economic difficulties.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 18, 2008
US Recession, Economic Data is a Lagging Indicator / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2009
By: John_Mauldin
In this weekend's Thoughts from the Frontlines, I quoted from part of a very thoughtful, right-on-target analysis by David A. Rosenberg entitled "The Elusive Bottom." Over the weekend, I decided that you should read the whole piece, as Rosenberg makes some very solid points about how the markets and the economy may play out over the next few years. He has a non-consensus viewpoint, but that is what I like for Outside the Box. In fact, I think this is one of the more thought-provoking pieces I have used in OTB for some time. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 18, 2008
G7 Collapsing GDP Growth Mirrors Plunging Corporate Earnings / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Ty_Andros
Confusion reigns supreme as markets correct, in predictable manner, allowing the Main stream financial press, G7 central banks and poorly prepared investors dream of the days when the financial wind was at their backs, rather then brutally in their faces. Markets are moving in a violently countertrend manner allowing people and investors with short term memories to predict the return to happy days. Don't blink or you may miss your day in the sun as: NOTHING HAS CHANGED! Absolutely nothing. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 18, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For US Financial Markets (August 18-22) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
The week of August 18-22 will see a very light week of economic data on the calendar. Aside from Dallas Fed President Fisher's comments on the US Economy on Wed, the only potentially market moving macro data for the week will be the Monday release of the PPI and Tuesday publication of the Housing Starts series for July. The remainder of the major data for the week will be released on Thursday when the weekly jobless claims series, the August Philadelphia Fed survey and the June index of leading economic indicators are published. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Double Digit Inflation Forecasts are way off base / Economics / Inflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
BusinessWeek is Bracing for Inflation . Let's take a look at an article written by John K. Castle, CEO of Castle Harlan, a New York private equity firm.
Growing evidence suggests American consumers, businesspeople, and political leaders should all be bracing for double-digit inflation, probably as early as 2009. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Crashing Global Economy Boosts Dollar as Interest Rate Differentials Narrow / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2009
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Almost exactly a year after the advent of the credit debacle, the term “credit crunch” squeezed into Britain's Chambers dictionary, defined as “a sudden and drastic reduction in the availability of credit”.
Fittingly, the past week witnessed market participants focusing anew on deteriorating global growth prospects, arguing that slower growth and belt-tightening times could reduce inflation pressures.
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Saturday, August 16, 2008
Economic Decoupling Fails as World Follows US into Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2009
By: John_Mauldin
- A Mid-Year Correction
- Whatever Happened to Decoupling?
- The UK Starts to Slow
- A Recession by Any Other Name
- What's a Central Banker to Do?
The old mantra was that if the United States sneezed, the rest of the world would catch a cold, as the US was seen as the main driver of world growth. That was then. Economists and analysts began to argue that China and the developing markets were starting to provide a consumer base for the world. And Europe's new and growing markets would be able to stave off problems from abroad and stay on their own growth path. The world, we were assured last year, would not suffer from problems in the US economy.
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Friday, August 15, 2008
Euro-zone on the Brink of Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2009
By: Money_Morning
Jennifer Yousfi writes: The Eurozone economy recorded its first decline in more than a decade as slowdowns in the European Union's largest economies dragged on gross domestic product (GDP).
The Eurozone economy, which covers the 15 nations that share the euro currency, contracted 0.2% in the second quarter, as a 0.5% decline in Germany and a 0.3% decline in France offset gains in the smaller economies of Austria, Portugal and Spain, Eurostat, the European Union's official statistics office, announced yesterday (Thursday).
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Friday, August 15, 2008
Fundemental Change as Global Economy Heads For Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2009
By: Mike_Shedlock
The global economy is slowing rapidly. Let's take a look at some striking examples. Germany, France, Spain, Italy
Bloomberg is reporting German, French Economies Shrink as Spending, Investment Falter .
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Thursday, August 14, 2008
Global Oil, Food and Water Crisis Economic Tipping Points / Economics / Global Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: I'll discuss the state of the markets shortly. First, I'd like to discuss the state of the world's future.
According to a long-term study just released by the U.S. Naval Services Department, a series of tipping points could dramatically alter the global prospects for economic growth and humanity — for the worse.
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Thursday, August 14, 2008
US Deceptive Q2 GDP Based on Fraudulent Price Deflator / Economics / Market Manipulation
By: Jim_Willie_CB
It is hard to find much positive regarding the gold trade lately. The attacks have been multi-faceted during the weak late summer season. So resort to something of value: THE TRUTH. As Ralph Waldo Emerson once said, “The greatest homage one can pay to the truth is to tell it.” When the US financial lattice work was showing clear signals of near total destruction, if not simple decimation, when USGovt bailouts seemed certain to cost in the trillion$ from mortgage agency rescues and FHA mortgage loan mulligans (second chance shot in golf), when US banks seemed caught in a race to raise more cash for equity from friendly foreign fools who fail to read the news, when the USEconomic recession has been turning broad and deep, when General Motors and Ford seem caught managing their death process toward a certain bankruptcy, THE USGOVT NEEDED A REALLY GOOD LIE FROM WHICH TO BUILD A DOLLAR BOUNCE. Read full article... Read full article...